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15 June 2008

RECESSION : WITHER THOU ART?

I have heard that there is a Recession doing the rounds of the world of economics .
I went to Select City Walk to meet him but was informed that he wasnt around. Nor was he visible in CP, South Extension, Subhiksha, Big Bazaar or any of the Nokia or Reliance stores. Ditto for Gurgaon, Noida, Chandigarh, Mumbai or Bangalore. Maybe he gave me the slip and went to the countryside - for recuperation.
Why do I go out and look for the biggest enemy of growth? For many reasons. If he is around, then I have safety in Value, fixed-income and in defensives but primarily I look because negation of an antipode is perhaps the easiest way to prove a theory - mine being that the current 'recession' in US and western economies has little negative impact on indian stock markets.
If there were a recession, oil and other commodities wouldnt be at such commanding heights. Prices of real estate and commercial rental rates in India would not be matching those of Tokyo, New York and Hong Kong. Daiichi Sankyo wouldnt be buying Ranbaxy, Tata's the JLR and art collectors wouldnt be paying Rs 2.3 Cr for an unknown painting by a relatively unknown indian painter.Yes people in the US have lost jobs and money in the sub-prime crash and companies have gone near-bankrupt in an attempt to keep their nose above the waterline. Yes SUV sales in the US are at an all time low and people in urban Louisiana are buying bicycles by the gross. And Yes it does adversely effect a whole host of indian companies - auto ancillaries, IT, textiles - to name a few.
But that also leaves a vast universe of companies not directly linked with the US economy and a smaller subset which actually gains from this recession!You should try some for hors d'oeuvre - Domestic Retail, Telecom, food and agro processing. Bon Appetit!

2 comments:

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